It is ALWAYS a best guess on what each new spring will bring.
- Will it be too wet - too dry - or just right?
- Will it be too cold or too hot at the wrong times?
- Will we have an unusual amount of damaging insects or will they be under control or within normal limits?
- Will we have a late freeze?
- Will there be hail or wind damage?
- Will the growing season be shortened by an early fall?
- And the list goes on...
Here are some of the predictions for 2017 from the folks who do the best job of best guessing:
Professor Tony Lupo to RFD Radio Network: "Another El Nino is currently developing in the Pacific Ocean..." "El Nino generally means good yields for farmers...because we tend to have milder weather conditions - temperatures that are close to normal and precipitation which occurs on a somewhat regular basis."
The Old Farmer’s Almanac says, “Last Spring Frost will be
April 22 and the First fall frost will be October 13. (50% probability for
each.) Growing season will be 174 days.”
According
to UW Madison Department of Entomology:
“The mild el Nino weather conditions may have bolstered the number of Japanese
beetles.” “Some scientists have
predicted high tick and Lyme disease in the eastern US in 2017.” While others think it will stay about the
same. About the same is approximately 30,000
documented Lyme disease cases across the country per year. That boils down to gardeners need to prevent
tick bites.
Invisiverse’s
Cynthia Wallentine, “A boom in mouse populations (due to the mild winter) could
cause a surge in cases of Lyme disease. The White-footed mice serve as a reservoir for
the bacteria that causes Lyme disease.
In the two years following a good acorn crop, we see a high abundance of
infected ticks on mice and other hosts.”
“The mice, ticks, acorns and weather for 2017 predict a bad year for
Lyme disease.”
There are
13 and 17-year Cicada species. Then
there are two brood groups. This equals
4 emergences. Cicada Mania says, “The next periodical cicada emergences in Illinois will be
in 2021, 2024, 2028 and 2031.
The National Pest Management Association’s
information, “Wetter than average weather with a record-breaking warm December
can jump start ant and tick activity.
Also the premature mosquito population increase is already occurring. Termites are swarming earlier.”
The Grower Talks Magazine, Paul Pilon the
Perennial Production Consultant and editor-at-large of Perennial Pulse newsletter,
says “…I do anticipate more insects and mites will survive than usual. If I’m right, it’s likely many growers will
observe pests, particularly aphids and two-spotted spider mites, earlier than a
typical year.”
It’s too early
to predict if there will be lots of powdery mildew but it can be expected if
the wet spring becomes a wet summer.
Dr. Raymond
Cloyd, entomologist at Kansas State U.
believes, “…biggest pest issues for Spring 2017 will probably be the same as
previous years, which includes Western flower thrips (WFT), aphids and
whiteflies.” “Since there are fewer active ingredients for pesticides being
introduced…WFT will continue to be a primary insect pest due to the current
resistance to insecticides and the ability to transmit viruses.”
“Dr. Jill
Calabro, Research & Science Programs Director for AmericanHort., “A potential late spring frost (which is the
hallmark of a mild winter) could predispose trees and shrubs to attack from
pathogens such as anthracnose.”
Moisture
plays a roll in how many ants will decide your home is their next best
meal. According to Termidor, “Termites, carpenter ants and the odorous house ant will
seek areas where there is moisture.”
The US Federal Fish and Wildlife
Service, “the rusty
patched bumble bee (Bombus affinis) has been placed on the List of Endangered
and Threatened Wildlife…effective 02-10-2017.”
As a side
note, if you want to see where your food is coming from, why it’s priced as it
is today and what to expect, see www.usfoods.com
“Farmer’s Report Market Trends”. And if you ever think we should stop trade
from Mexico, it’s a good reminder we would then be without much of our winter
produce.
For the
good news, May Berenbaum, professor and head of entomology at the University of
Illinois, “There are about 200,000 species of insect pollinators. Two-thirds to three-fourths of all flowering
plants depend on pollination. Pollinators
account for only a fraction of the insects in existence. Insects also break down decomposing bodies,
eat manure and serve as nutrition to animals.” Her talk is asking all of us caring gardeners to talk about protection for beneficial insects and to educate others.
According
to Monarch Butterfly – Journey North,
“Monarch Butterflies lay eggs as they travel; northbound butterflies are
delivering the next generation.” On
March 30, 2017, it was reported the migration’s leading edge was approaching
Oklahoma. Most of the current migrating
monarchs will reach the end of their lives by the end of April. The size of the next generation will largely
be determined by the quality of breeding habitat in Texas (and some neighboring
states to a lesser extent.)” This site
has cool maps showing the reported sightings of adults, eggs, larvae and milkweed.
Soooooo what do we know from all of this? It's another year of gardening with another year of pests and problems. But gardeners are nothing if not optimistic. We are learning and changing as we need. And we're not about to let a few pesky pests alter our love of gardening. Right?
