To Be or Not To Be

It is ALWAYS a best guess on what each new spring will bring.

• Will it be too wet - too dry - or just right?
• Will it be too cold or too hot at the wrong times?
• Will we have an unusual amount of damaging insects or will they be under control or within normal limits?
• Will we have a late freeze?
• Will there be hail or wind damage?
• Will the growing season be shortened by an early fall?
• And the list goes on...

Here are some of the predictions for 2017 from the folks who do the best job of best guessing:

Professor Tony Lupo to RFD Radio Network:  "Another El Nino is currently developing in the Pacific Ocean..."  "El Nino generally means good yields for farmers...because we tend to have milder weather conditions - temperatures that are close to normal and precipitation which occurs on a somewhat regular basis."  

The Old Farmer’s Almanac says, “Last Spring Frost will be April 22 and the First fall frost will be October 13. (50% probability for each.)  Growing season will be 174 days.” 

According to UW Madison Department of Entomology: “The mild el Nino weather conditions may have bolstered the number of Japanese beetles.”  “Some scientists have predicted high tick and Lyme disease in the eastern US in 2017.”  While others think it will stay about the same.  About the same is approximately 30,000 documented Lyme disease cases across the country per year.  That boils down to gardeners need to prevent tick bites.

Invisiverse’s Cynthia Wallentine, “A boom in mouse populations (due to the mild winter) could cause a surge in cases of Lyme disease.  The White-footed mice serve as a reservoir for the bacteria that causes Lyme disease.  In the two years following a good acorn crop, we see a high abundance of infected ticks on mice and other hosts.”  “The mice, ticks, acorns and weather for 2017 predict a bad year for Lyme disease.”  

There are 13 and 17-year Cicada species.  Then there are two brood groups.  This equals 4 emergences.  Cicada Mania says, “The next periodical cicada emergences in Illinois will be in 2021, 2024, 2028 and 2031.

The National Pest Management Association’s information, “Wetter than average weather with a record-breaking warm December can jump start ant and tick activity.  Also the premature mosquito population increase is already occurring.   Termites are swarming earlier.”

The Grower Talks Magazine, Paul Pilon the Perennial Production Consultant and editor-at-large of Perennial Pulse newsletter, says “…I do anticipate more insects and mites will survive than usual.  If I’m right, it’s likely many growers will observe pests, particularly aphids and two-spotted spider mites, earlier than a typical year.”    

It’s too early to predict if there will be lots of powdery mildew but it can be expected if the wet spring becomes a wet summer.

Dr. Raymond Cloyd, entomologist at Kansas State U. believes, “…biggest pest issues for Spring 2017 will probably be the same as previous years, which includes Western flower thrips (WFT), aphids and whiteflies.” “Since there are fewer active ingredients for pesticides being introduced…WFT will continue to be a primary insect pest due to the current resistance to insecticides and the ability to transmit viruses.”

“Dr. Jill Calabro, Research & Science Programs Director for AmericanHort., “A potential late spring frost (which is the hallmark of a mild winter) could predispose trees and shrubs to attack from pathogens such as anthracnose.”

Moisture plays a roll in how many ants will decide your home is their next best meal.  According to Termidor, “Termites, carpenter ants and the odorous house ant will seek areas where there is moisture.”

The US Federal Fish and Wildlife Service, “the rusty patched bumble bee (Bombus affinis) has been placed on the List of Endangered and Threatened Wildlife…effective 02-10-2017.” 

As a side note, if you want to see where your food is coming from, why it’s priced as it is today and what to expect, see www.usfoods.com “Farmer’s Report Market Trends”.  And if you ever think we should stop trade from Mexico, it’s a good reminder we would then be without much of our winter produce.

For the good news, May Berenbaum, professor and head of entomology at the University of Illinois, “There are about 200,000 species of insect pollinators.  Two-thirds to three-fourths of all flowering plants depend on pollination.  Pollinators account for only a fraction of the insects in existence.  Insects also break down decomposing bodies, eat manure and serve as nutrition to animals.”  Her talk is asking all of us caring gardeners to talk about protection for beneficial insects and to educate others.

According to Monarch Butterfly – Journey North, “Monarch Butterflies lay eggs as they travel; northbound butterflies are delivering the next generation.”  On March 30, 2017, it was reported the migration’s leading edge was approaching Oklahoma.  Most of the current migrating monarchs will reach the end of their lives by the end of April.  The size of the next generation will largely be determined by the quality of breeding habitat in Texas (and some neighboring states to a lesser extent.)”  This site has cool maps showing the reported sightings of adults, eggs, larvae and milkweed. 

Soooooo what do we know from all of this?  It's another year of gardening with another year of pests and problems.  But gardeners are nothing if not optimistic.  We are learning and changing as we need.  And we're not about to let a few pesky pests alter our love of gardening.  Right?